What Happened to Gay Marriage?

During the past 3 election cycles, the opposition to gay marriage was at the forefront of the conservative agenda. Republicans locally and nationally talked about the danger to the 'traditional family' posed by 'activist judges' who would 'redefine marriage.' Even the biggest opponents of benefits for same-sex couples downplayed the issue this year.

Michele Bachmann's legislative career was arguably built on opposing benefits for gay and lesbian couples. She called it the number one issue facing America, that is, until she decided to run for Congress. Since then, education has become the number one issue facing America. Gay marriage was barely a factor in the 6th Congressional race.

Tim Pawlenty, Patricia Anderson, and Mary Kiffmeyer took time out of their busy government jobs to craft a video earlier this year urging Minnesotans to get a Marriage Amendment passed through the legislature. Anderson and Kiffmeyer lost their jobs yesterday. The last Pawlenty really had much to say on the topic was during the GOP endorsement in June:

"I can tell you what your worst nightmare is," he said. "It's one of the big-spendin', tax-raisin', abortion-promotin', gay marriage-embracin', more welfare-without-accountability lovin', school reform-resistin', illegal immigration-supportin' Democrats for governor who think Hillary Clinton should be president of the United States."

Has this issue run out of steam as an effective wedge issue for Republicans? Statewide initiatives during this election point to 'yes.' For the first time in US history a gay marriage ban was rejected by popular vote, and it wasn't a liberal, coastal state, it was Republican heavy Arizona. In conservative South Dakota, the gay marriage ban appears to have barely passed by 4 points, but the ban opponents are not giving up until all votes are counted. Six other states passed the ban: Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Colorado, South Carolina, and Idaho. However, almost all of the margins in these initiatives were won by less than the margins of 2004.

Marriage amendment proponents targeted 12 state senators this election cycle. They were only successful at removing one two from office, Sens. Dean Johnson and Dallas Sams. And they lost a major supporter, Sen. Mady Reider, who was the author of one of 7 proposed bills for a constitutional amendment banning benefits for same-sex couples. Openly gay Republican Sen. Paul Koering won his reelection despite a nasty primary and general election. He was at the top of social conservative groups' lists of people to go.

As more state's recognize gay and lesbian families (MA, VT, NJ, RI), and more of the general population realize that GLBT people don't really have an agenda to destroy America, they begin to see through the wedge issue tactics. Or it could be that time spent reinforcing existing laws by constitutional tampering is taking away from crucial issues like the Iraq War, gas prices, government corruption, and health care, issues which are at the top of the list for gay and straight voters alike.

In the end, most states that are going to put same-sex marriage bans on the ballot already have. The opportunity to exploit the issue simply doesn't exist like it used to, and on the federal level, with Democrats now (likely) controlling both houses of Congress, the issue of a federal amendment isn't likely to come up again in any serious manner. It's my opnion that we've seen the last of same-sex marriage as a wedge issue